Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). RH trends along the coast have a weak negative bias due to neglect of the ocean's moderating influence. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. 2015). During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). 2014; Kishore et al. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. Back to Lesson. 2016). Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. In line with the study by Wu et al. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? It could also increase the probability of large fires in the northern and central US Rocky Mountains by 13 to 60 %. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. Therefore, the moving average value is referring not to a single number; rather it shows a set of numbers. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. 2015). In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. 2011). Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. 2012; Meshesha et al. Is it warming or cooling? This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. 2008; Subash et al. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. ; ed. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). As a result, they cover different past and future time periods, and information is presented at different levels of regional aggregation. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. 2005). Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). 2012). During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. The results of correlation analysis between crop production and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) during the period 19972014 are shown in Table5. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. 5.3.1. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. 2011; Funk et al. Figure 1. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. 2017a, 2017b). In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The aim of the study was to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the northeast highlands of Ethiopia. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. Daily maximumtemperature varies from a high of more than 37oC over the lowlands in northeast and southeast toa low of about 10oC-15oC over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. 2010; Simane et al. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. 2013). It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Winter (December, January and February)In winter, the overhead sun is far south of equator. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. Observed Data 2011; Pachauri et al. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. 2005). Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. There has been a continuous decrease in the duration and distribution of rainfall during the last 35 years. It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). However, some parts of thecountry enjoy a temperate climate. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. 2010 ). At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa.
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